What is the professional white -collar worker replaced by the machine? Intersection


On July 15th, "Iron Man" Musk said in a speech at the American Governor's Association that automated technology will inevitably cause a subversive impact on the employment market. Because robots will be able to do what humans do in the future, and do better than humans.

The heads of the United States of the United States are mobilized by Musk at once, because if this is true, the impact of automation on the employment market will be more direct and far -reaching compared with the low -cost commodities imported from developing countries. Family election voting warehouse.

Mark P. Mills, a professor at the Research Institute of Manhattan and a professor at Northwest University, recently published an article on City Journal, saying that the future of automation technology replaced professional white -collar workers will be faster than expected.

Creative destruction is sweeping the city center

The secret that automated technology cannot be sued is that it is easier to develop a robot to replace primary lawyers than to replace proficient electricians. This fact also helps explain why economists and politicians are deeply troubled by "creative destruction", and not long ago, they also believe that this is more profitable for society (Editor's Note: Innovation can keep from the inside, it can constantly from the inside. Innovative economic structure, that is, constantly break the old order and structure, and at the same time continue to create new structures, thereby bringing economic growth, this process is called "creative destruction"). They argued that technology and automation have improved productivity and created more jobs.

But in the era of automatic algorithms, they are not so confident. This is not surprising:

Creative destruction did not sweep the factories and farms, but swept the city center and snatched the work of white -collar workers. Over the years, the white -collar group has been arguing about the "end of work", but there is no doubt that the future that many people are afraid of will come true.

Automation: The novel and deep revolution on the surface

The focus of most media's attention is that manual labor is being gradually replaced -authentic robots do things in front of people, which is far more intuitive than the "robot" that cannot be seen on the cloud platform. But focusing on the human -shaped robot that flipped through the hamburger in the fast food restaurant, it was just confusing the audiovisual. The real revolution happened elsewhere.

Not only that, automation does not explain the shrinkage of heavy industrial positions: manufacturing investment in information technology has been very sluggish over the past ten years. As the key indicators of automation and the productivity of the ultimate goal, there is no significant rising. Manufacturing manufacturers are actually insufficient investment in science and technology.

However, Silicon Valley has always been committed to a revolutionary software for shopping malls, Hollywood, hotels, barrels, newspapers, television, and finance. Some algorithms on the market now teach elementary school mathematics, which is better than humans who graduate from education bachelor. At present, a large number of documents reviewed by bureaucrats and regulators are gradually being handled by algorithms.

The professional white -collar workers who mixed meals in this huge service industry will be frightened that they have been in the workplace.

Automated industry penetration

If you put your vision more long in the long run, you will find that automation's subversion of the industrial structure is far more than that: nearly 200 "unicorn" companies -like Uber valuation of more than 1 billion US dollars, and risk investment is rushing Start -ups -90%of them belong to the service industry.

There is such an obvious "preference" in the industry, which is not without reason. Software on the supercomputer can handle the past information processing tasks that cannot be imagined at a lower cost on the cloud platform, from interpretation of X -rays to management passive funds can be easily completed. But once the engineering design and hardware fusion are involved, the challenge will be magnified accordingly, and the complexity will double. An insignificant failure may cause the card shell on the video software, but it will cause unexpected serious consequences on the operating system of the machine.

The concept of unmanned vehicles is speculated. In the realization of feasible sensors, brakes, power systems, and ensuring security and safety, there are many jobs to do. A report from Goldman Sachs pointed out that the automotive industry is still one of the one-in-depth manufacturing industry; in other industries, the progress of automated applications is less than 20%-30%.

There are always, in terms of "production materials", a network revolution will eventually set off. And now, we may wish to call it "management information" when you are undergoing tremendous changes. The effect of change is based on history -economic growth has been greatly improved, and more of employment positions -but the social pain in the process this time is destined to affect the level of career white -collar workers and corporate management.